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Increasing apprehensions are present about the potential of armed conflict among Horn of Africa neighbors, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile language has intensified in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for access to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has sparked a fierce war of words.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in last year that his nation's sea access was an vital issue, comments that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Ties between the two countries have regularly been difficult. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a long sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, making it landlocked.

In 1998, a border war broke out in which numerous people died.

Recent Comments from Ethiopian Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief the army commander have openly claimed control of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and suggested the desire to capture it through military means.

In early September, the Prime Minister said the country's "mistake" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "addressed tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrean Answer to the Statements

In the face of continuous warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to concise remarks on online platforms from Communications Head the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for maritime entry describing it as "risky" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a strategy of retaking former lands.

The information ministry cautioned on recently that efforts to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Ground

There have been few indications of major military movements in the border areas between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in the country, state television has broadcast graduation ceremonies of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The head of staff section of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an conversation that the military was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Past Origins of the Dispute

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by colonial powers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the UK forces before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor terminated this agreement and Eritrea became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year civil war ensued, concluding with military reversal in 1991. Sovereignty was then approved by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, causing conflict in 1998.

Though this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors continued at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two signed a declaration that the hostilities was concluded – a action that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then allies in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 armed struggle in Tigray.

But diplomatic connections have later worsened once more.